Browns Data Spotlight (Week 7)

Our weekly effort to take valuable, but at times confusing, NFL data and summarize what the charts are telling us about the Cleveland Browns.

(Photo - Cleveland Browns)

As a companion to the data discussion we have on the Friday pod each week, we will be taking a look at the most interesting/relevant data released between games in an attempt to gain better understanding and look for trends as the season progresses. And I understand these are miserable at times with the data this Browns team is providing but context matters at Browns Film Breakdown — good or bad. To that end, here are the three we’ve chosen for this week.

Data Set No. 1

To kick off this week in data, I was inspired by a thread posted to Twitter by Kevin Cole looking at the recent performance history of Jameis Winston:

I then pulled additional data and added Joe Flacco and Deshaun Watson for a more extensive comparison of the three QB’s from 2018 to present day:

Key Points

• Data from 2018 through 2023 (which is what the Browns were working off of when deciding on a backup QB for the ‘24 season) clearly indicated that Winston performed better than Flacco over the previous 6 seasons.

• While Watson and Flacco’s 2024 EPA/Play and Success Rates should not be considered apples to apples, their 2023 numbers in the same categories can (and should) be directly compared, and generally used as a proxy to what you might expect, should Winston be given the opportunity to start this season.

Takeaway

With the information on hand at the time, the Browns made a sound decision to sign Winston over Flacco to back up Watson in 2024. Winston is cut from the same streaky cloth as Flacco but is younger, more athletic, and has a more consistent recent history in both EPA and Success Rate. Having benefitted greatly from having Flacco on the team last season, I can’t help but root for him as he plays some of the best football of his career under Shane Steichen for the Colts, but I also understand the Browns decision this offseason to go with Winston.

That being said, there is no question that if the Browns had re-signed Flacco, he would have fewer snaps on the year than Winston does (they would not have a Flacco quarterback sneak package) and so the pining for what we “missed out on” is not in line with the reality in Cleveland. The Browns ultimately signed one of the best backups in the NFL and remain uninterested in stopping Watson’s all out sprint toward the worst season ever played by a veteran quarterback in the modern era.

Data Set No. 2